Chicago Blackhawks Mailbag #1: Trade Deadline talk, Kyle Davidson
I asked for questions and you all delivered. Here are some of the better questions I received about the Blackhawks.
The trade deadline is coming up and lots of Hawks players are rumored to be on the trading block. The Hawks also named Kyle Davidson the General Manager on Tuesday. I asked for questions on Monday, and I received about 20 responses. So thank you all for that. (Note: If your question was not featured this time, there’s a good chance it will be next time).
Who is the real Seth Jones? The one that we saw at the beginning of the season (awful), the 20 games after the coaching change (elite), or the up and down player we’ve seen recently? (@tyleraven10)
This is a real tough one for me to answer. It’s hard to gauge how good he actually is. He was terrible under Jeremy Colliton, excellent under Derek Kind but then he caught Covid and hasn’t been the same.
Sometimes he has shifts like this:
And other times like this:
It’s clear that he’s an elite talent. He’s playing the most ice time in his career (26:05), he’s on pace to put up the second-most points in his career (56), and his defensive numbers are the best they’ve ever been. I think being on a bad team and switching coaches has definitely had a negative impact on him.
So to answer your question, I think he’s probably somewhere in the middle. I believe that he’s a top-pairing defenseman and a good one at that. But the Blackhawks overpaid in that trade and on his contract.
If we trade Brandon Hagel, what do you think the ideal trade would look like? (@mattcandra)
How much value does Hagel have now compared to the offseason? (@SammyT_51)
What do you think a Canes package for Hagel would look like? (@pierreanalytics)
The Brandon Hagel discourse is definitely an interesting one. I like Hagel’s game a lot as do the Blackhawks, and I’d bet a lot of other organizations do too. I also believe that a lot of Hawks fans overrate Hagel (overrate ≠ bad).
On a Stanley Cup contender, he is likely driving your third line and can play in all situations if need be (5v5, PP & PK). The other things that make Hagel extremely intriguing are his motor, his age (23 years old), and his contract ($1.5M x 3). He’s currently on pace for 26 goals and 46 points this season. He has been compared to Blake Coleman and for good reason. I think a similar return, to what Coleman got, (20th overall, Nolan Foote) is warranted for Hagel.
To answer the second question, I think if you’re going to trade Brandon Hagel you do it now. He’s shooting an unsustainable 20.5% (I think he’s closer to a 13% shooter) and you would also get more value because of his contract if he’s moved now.
Finally, we have the trade package from Carolina. I would personally start the offer by asking for the Canes 2023 1st round pick and winger prospect Ville Koivunen. Does that get accepted? Maybe it does, maybe it doesn’t.
What will the Blackhawks do at the deadline in your opinion? (@CrystalPepsi98)
Who do you think gets traded at the deadline? (@satavvibes)
The Hawks need to sell at the deadline and start recouping assets. In his short time as GM, Kyle Davidson has said as much. They need to start rebuilding their prospect pool (which is pretty barren besides Lukas Reichel and Drew Commesso) and they need to get more quality draft picks.
There are a ton of players who could possibly be dealt at the deadline, some more realistic than others. I’ll list a few below (besides Hagel) and what I think could be realistic returns.
Keep an eye on (50%-70% chance of being dealt): Dylan Strome (A 3rd or a hockey trade), Henrik Borgstrom (Mid-late round pick)
Most likely getting traded (70%-90%): Dominik Kubalik (A 2nd), Ryan Carpenter (Mid-late round pick), Calvin de Haan (Late 1st/Early 2nd), Erik Gustafsson (Late round pick)
Control their own destiny: Marc-Andre Fleury (Late 1st/Early 2nd), Patrick Kane (see below), Jonathan Toews (see below)
What’s an ideal trade package for Patrick Kane? (@Shae_Nuge93)
Do you think it’s smart to let Kane go now since we’re going into a rebuild? (@RuehlMadeline)
Are you ready for them to blow it up and do a proper rebuild? (@skiminer36)
Is it time to change the guard? (@MaxTaviusP)
Do you think that Bowen Byram, Alex Newhook, and Justin Barron for Patrick Kane (retained) would be a fair trade? (@KanerRocket17)
So that’s a lot to unpack. With Kyle Davidson announcing that the Hawks were going into a full-on rebuild (which was the correct choice and was long overdue), questions of course came up about Kane and Toews’ futures. Will they be traded? Will they stay? And so on and so forth.
Personally, I feel like there’s actually a chance both get traded, but it wouldn’t be until the offseason. Of course, both would also have to waive their no-movement clauses, and the Hawks would most definitely have to retain salary.
Ideally, you would want to get at least a 1st round pick and a legitimate game-changing young player/prospect for Patrick Kane. I think that is a completely fair ask. In 2020, Scott Powers of The Athletic talked to sources around the league and they said as much.
It gets a little more tricky with Jonathan Toews. He’s still an effective player, but for his price and durability concerns, it might be hard to move him. I think if the Hawks retain 50% on him they might be able to get a late 2nd or an early 3rd round pick.
To answer the final question about that trade package from Colorado. I don’t think Colorado is willing to go that far, but it could be a starting ask from the Hawks. Bowen Byram looks like a future top-pairing guy (but he has major concussion issues), Alex Newhook has low-end 1C potential and Justin Barron is probably going to be a good fourth/fifth defenseman (who also has had injury problems). But even if Colorado wants to do this trade, the salary cap makes it very difficult to do so.
In your opinion what path does this organization need to take to get back to winning? I also want to hear your opinion on all the managerial changes in the front office (@FlareHC)
How good of a job do you think Kyle Davidson will do as GM? (@satavvibes)
I have to say that I’m already pretty happy with the changes that have been made under Davidson, albeit small ones. As I mentioned earlier, Davidson said he wants to rebuild and I completely agree with that path. They need to start building through the draft and they need to acquire quality prospects/picks.
It was also made very clear by Danny Wirtz and Kyle himself that he’s not Stan Bowman. He has different philosophies and different things that he values. I think that’s very important to note.
That’s already been shown through actions (firing VP of Amateur Scouting Mark Kelley, and Assistant GM Ryan Stewart). Davidson also stated that he wanted to build his own Hockey Ops department. He mentioned that they may go outside the box and get ideas from other people from other sports. The last two things that I loved were that he wants to continue to add onto the current analytics department, and that he doesn’t believe in the ‘untouchable theory’.
I certainly believe in Kyle Davidson, as do the Hawks, and I think he’s the right person for the job. The fact that he’s only 33-years-old and has been with the organization for 11 years says a lot. I’m excited to see what he does at the deadline, the draft and in the coming years.
Stats via - Elite Prospects, @JFreshHockey, @TopDownHockey
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